Charts Gone Wild 2011-10-11T16:02:12Z http://chartsgonewild.com/feed/atom/ WordPress John Lee <![CDATA[Happy Birthday Jesse Livermore]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2419 2011-07-27T02:42:37Z 2011-07-27T02:33:20Z jl Happy Birthday Jesse Livermore

I almost forgot about today.

I’d like to think I have many things in common with Jesse, such as our initials “JL” or the fact that we both got started when we were teenagers, but that’s as common as things get. JL’s trading journey is a perfect demonstration of how far one man is willing to go to achieve greatness in our profession. He has personified the very definition of fortitude in the face of extreme adversity. It’s not about how his life ended, but rather, it’s about how he lived as a professional trader that we seek to examine and emulate.

Think about it. Think about what he had to face:

  • He went broke, after being married at 23, and had to ask his first wife to pawn off her jewelry. They divorced.
  • His 2nd wife divorced him. The 3rd wife might have been a bit “off” since her last four husbands committed suicide.
  • Lost both multi-million dollar fortunes (3MM and 100MM) after two early 1900′s crashes.
  • Went bankrupt several times.
  • Suffered severe clinical depression.

These things would surely have made the vast majority of men quit trading, but JL wasn’t an ordinary man, he was extra-ordinary and above the average trader.

If you’re quite unsure of trading or whether you can actually do it, think about the time, effort, and personal sacrifices and struggles JL had to make. This is why I ask my subs if they are “doing everything they can” to make trading a possibility. I personally believe that trading is a privilege that is earned through years of sweat and tears (and any other bodily fluids that would apply). If one simply decides to wake up one morning, open a brokerage account, and start pressing buttons, then that person has not earned that privilege and one thing is for certain – trading definitely isn’t a right.

Even more, there were no computers or the internet back then. There weren’t thousands of trading books available. There was no Stocktwits. We truly have to be grateful for the countless resources we have at our disposal in the 21st century (yet most people still don’t take advantage of them). For a man that had to scribble numbers on a board and chart stocks on paper, his feats cannot go unnoticed. We have the most advanced trading tools available to us and countless resources at our disposal, yet the question still remains for new traders: are you doing everything you possibly can to perform? If you quit trading, ask yourself: did you do everything you possibly could to give yourself the best chance of survival? If you didn’t, then you probably will never know your true trading potential.

It is true that the most knowledgeable, experienced, and disciplined executors survive. It is also true that this is a long, arduous process. “It’s a journey, stay the course” as I try to teach my subs. Each day contributes to a mosaic with all of the parts interwoven into the fabric of your own unique personal journey. I encourage everyone to carefully read upon JL if you haven’t done so already. Don’t just mindlessly flip page after page, but truly examine each word in any of the books written by him or on him.

I can probably speak for most traders and say that JL’s words of wisdom has helped all of us in one way or another. In fact, I can agree with him on just about everything he said as his own rules form the core of my own rules. Having started trading over 100 years ago, his rules still apply today and we have to thank him for that.

In closing, below are some of his quotes:

Averaging Buys/Sells: “When I’m bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stocks on a scale down, I buy on a scale up.”

Discipline: “The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.”

Price Action: “The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements.”

Stock Picks/Following People: “The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.”

Cutting Losses: “A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.”

Timing: “It isn’t as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time.”

Being Right: “There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.”

Stocks Not Acting Right: “If a stock doesn’t act right don’t touch it; because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit.”

Stock Tips: “I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or series of tips that will make money for me than my own judgement.”

Not Taking It Personally: “Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.”

Learning Curve: “It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right.”

Self-Confidence: “A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game.”

Hard Money: “People who look for easy money invariable pay for the privilege of proving conclusively that it cannot be found on this earth.”

Importance of a Plan: “My plan of trading was sound enough and won oftener that it lost. If I had stuck to it I’d have been right perhaps as often as seven out of ten times.”

Lesson Learned: “It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes.”

Waiting for Opportunities: “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”

Intuition: “I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market.”

More on Sitting: “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regular wages.”

Daily Personal Struggle: “A stock operator has to fight a lot of expensive enemies within himself.”

Pain is Good: “If I hadn’t made money some of the time I might have acquired market wisdom quicker.”

Blowing Up: “There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!”

Physically and Mentally Fit: “I couldn’t afford anything that kept me from feeling physically and mentally fit. Even now I am usually in bed by ten. As a young man I never kept late hours, because I could not do business properly on insufficient sleep.”

Accept Responsibility: “The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others…”

Greed: “One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”

Taking Breaks: “I can always give up trading to play, unless of course it is an exceptionally active market in which my commitments are rather heavy.”

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John Lee <![CDATA[Ten Setups to Watch This Week]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2400 2011-07-20T01:18:50Z 2011-07-20T01:18:50Z The emergence of a pullback within the long-term range has allowed for the development of a variety of higher-probability setups. The following ten setups should be watched:

CPE Ten Setups to Watch This WeekHDY Ten Setups to Watch This Week

MGM Ten Setups to Watch This WeekHNSN Ten Setups to Watch This Week

CEG Ten Setups to Watch This Week

DDS Ten Setups to Watch This WeekPSMT Ten Setups to Watch This Week

LVS Ten Setups to Watch This Week

PTIE Ten Setups to Watch This WeekSHOO Ten Setups to Watch This Week

 

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John Lee <![CDATA[CGW Show (06-28-11)]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2392 2011-06-29T12:47:51Z 2011-06-29T12:47:51Z

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John Lee <![CDATA[From Reverse Wedge to Neutral Range]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2389 2011-06-28T16:20:50Z 2011-06-28T16:20:50Z The good thing is that the market has stabilized into a range. The bad thing is that the range is even greater than it was before. We’re currently above the halfway mark within this range and the key resistance level is marked. We’re looking for a trajectory to the 50- and 100-day MAs.

spy3 From Reverse Wedge to Neutral Range

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John Lee <![CDATA[Remember This?]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2382 2011-06-23T17:42:49Z 2011-06-23T17:42:49Z $SPY is back in the range after a successful morning test of support. We re-entered a pretty strong short-term consolidation range. This level [...]]]> Yep. The $SPY is back in the range after a successful morning test of support. We re-entered a pretty strong short-term consolidation range. This level coincides with the 20/200-day MA trap, and as I said before, multiple tests are not uncommon. Watch as these two moving averages converge on each other on the daily and the range should begin to tighten up.

spy2 Remember This?

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John Lee <![CDATA[Straight to the Point]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2378 2011-06-20T18:37:40Z 2011-06-20T18:37:40Z $SPY is able to create a range and have closed the widening gap between support and resistance. The initial resistance area is the HOD [...]]]> The $SPY is able to create a range and have closed the widening gap between support and resistance. The initial resistance area is the HOD for today. In addition, we have to look back three more days to the actual gap consolidation for the secondary resistance level. Support is, in fact, today’s LOD. We’re looking for the 6/16 low to potentially become a short-term low. What is the key ingredient? We need to BTFO out of this range and cancel out half of last week’s consolidation for a journey to the 20-day daily MA. Until then, I’m afraid we’re still range-bound.

spy1 Straight to the Point

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John Lee <![CDATA[Slope Changes in the S&P500 NASDAQ Russell 2K]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2368 2011-06-19T00:24:27Z 2011-06-19T00:23:06Z In terms of points on trend lines, the overall rate of drop has decelerated. This is important because actually gives the market a chance to form a base. Please remember that this never guarantees anything, it merely gives the market a higher probability. Overall, the 200-day MAs are holding and, as expected, there is a multi-day struggle in their respective regions. It’s not unnatural to see swings above, at, and/or below a key long-term moving average such as this one prior to a decisive course of action. Given the channels and wedges that are currently forming on the 10-day (approx.) charts, we can estimate potential decisive locations.

The areas marked in yellow are consolidation regions and areas of struggle. The market would clearly have to overcome these areas to exit from their consolidations. The primary objective remains and calls for a tightening of the range. Secondary objectives can be split long or short. For those expecting upside, we need to see an intra-day breakout outside of the indices’ ($SPX, $COMP, $RUT) respective zones or gaps up above. For those expecting more downside, we would want to see an acceleration breaking short-term support, increasing the decline once again. Currently, all three indices show that the price action is below the 50% mark of their consolidation areas. We shall wait and see what happens until then.

Have a great Father’s Day.

spx Slope Changes in the S&P500 NASDAQ Russell 2K

comp1 Slope Changes in the S&P500 NASDAQ Russell 2K

rut1 Slope Changes in the S&P500 NASDAQ Russell 2K

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admin <![CDATA[Temporary Chat Room]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2346 2011-06-21T17:02:24Z 2011-06-17T16:12:10Z Please use this as the temporary chatroom when Chatroll is down.

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John Lee <![CDATA[Remember Parabolic Long Trades? $EQIX $HRBN]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2333 2011-06-17T12:47:14Z 2011-06-17T12:47:14Z $EQIX (10/08/10) here. $HRBN has a high probability of execution.]]> I wrote a post on the opposite of the parabolic short for $EQIX (10/08/10) here.

$HRBN has a high probability of execution.

HRBN Remember Parabolic Long Trades? $EQIX $HRBN

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John Lee <![CDATA[Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2324 2011-06-17T12:16:55Z 2011-06-17T12:16:13Z $SPX, $COMP, $RUT) are all sitting at two support areas. The first and most obvious support level would be 200-day MA. [...]]]> The three key indices ($SPX, $COMP, $RUT) are all sitting at two support areas. The first and most obvious support level would be 200-day MA. The 2nd support level varies. For instance, the $SPX and $COMP are both using their March lows while the $RUT is using it’s January lows. We do have a pre-market bounce this morning, and the objective today is to simply hold yesterday’s lows and close above it.

SPX2 Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT

COMP21 Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT

RUT21 Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT

Furthermore, close-up and updated charts of the reverse triangles/wedges indicate that we are, once again, back to fighting the halfway mark between key short-term support & resistance. The $RUT is slightly different due to it’s channel, but the same principle applies. We will most likely need to create some sort of base as a launch pad that coincides with the dual IT/LT support areas. Remember, we are still in consolidation and the overall short-term objective is to tighten up a wide range. Today’s objective is to hold and close above yesterday’s lows.

Good luck.

SPX3 Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT

comp Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT

rut Market Update (6/17/11) $SPX $COMP $RUT

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John Lee <![CDATA[The Megaphone (Continued)]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2321 2011-06-16T13:05:25Z 2011-06-16T13:05:25Z $SPY. The bound yellow [...]]]> We still have a lot of work to do. Below is the updated reverse triangle on the 5-min/9-day chart of the $SPY. The bound yellow areas represent ‘middle ground’ which is a key area where the market would need to find adequate support as a potential ‘launching pad’. The primary objective remains and that is for the market to tighten up a 3 point range. Everything for the past 9 days is still considered to be consolidation, thus any direct action on directional plays is still considered cautious as we made new lows yesterday. As technicians, we’re looking for at least one higher low for pre-emptive entry and stabilization to occur.

In addition, pay attention to the 200-day MAs on all of the indices (and their respective ETFs) as this area usually produces an extended period of struggle leading up to the final determination for short-term and intermediate-term direction.

Good luck!

spy11 The Megaphone (Continued)

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John Lee <![CDATA[Break the Megaphone]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2317 2011-06-15T12:33:38Z 2011-06-15T12:33:38Z $SPY, and it’s annoying. Nonetheless, stay on top of it’s development. The megaphone, or reverse triangle, is [...]]]> That’s exactly what we are creating on the $SPY, and it’s annoying. Nonetheless, stay on top of it’s development. The megaphone, or reverse triangle, is at it’s widest range yet. JL doesn’t like wide ranges, so I’d like to see this tighten up a bit before commitment.

spy Break the Megaphone

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John Lee <![CDATA[Daily Triangle on $DLTR]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2312 2011-06-14T14:18:18Z 2011-06-14T14:18:18Z $DLTR may or may not go today, but worth a watch.]]> $DLTR may or may not go today, but worth a watch.

dltr Daily Triangle on $DLTR

DLTR2 Daily Triangle on $DLTR

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John Lee <![CDATA[NASDAQ First at the 200-day, Russell 2K to Follow]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2307 2011-06-13T17:53:46Z 2011-06-13T17:52:07Z $SPX and $SPY are important, we have to pay attention to the first contact indices at the 200-day MA. [...]]]> While the 200-day MA on the $SPX and $SPY are important, we have to pay attention to the first contact indices at the 200-day MA. This would be the $COMP, and soon, the $RUT. Typically, it’s not too common for anything to bounce off of the 200-day MA for only one day and not see it for some time. Normally, there are days, and even weeks, of struggle, uncertainty, and consolidation at this all-important long-term moving average. Remember to continually estimate the location of the MA as it is still rising. The most dangerous thing to do is to make personal assumptions without considering the many scenarios that will arise in the next few days/weeks.

COMP3 NASDAQ First at the 200 day, Russell 2K to Follow

RUT2 NASDAQ First at the 200 day, Russell 2K to Follow

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John Lee <![CDATA[Doji String in Air Methods Corp. ($AIRM)]]> http://chartsgonewild.com/?p=2300 2011-06-13T13:14:26Z 2011-06-13T13:14:26Z $AIRM is a stock that I am looking at as a high-valued target currently displaying a string of doji. A string is composed of several [...]]]> $AIRM is a stock that I am looking at as a high-valued target currently displaying a string of doji. A string is composed of several narrow-ranged doji days. I consider these as the tightest forms of consolidation, so it’s always good to keep an eye out for them. In addition, this stock is holding above the 50% mark of the original breakout candle.

The standard operating procedure would be as follows:

1) Watch for a break of the doji string. Buy stops may be added in anticipation of an upside breakout. 1-min charts should be utilized for manual/discretionary entries. Pre-emptive entries are also possible.

2) Initial targets are established via the original breakout candle. Any potential upside breakout is expected to reach $74. A breakdown is expected to reach the 50-day MA.

3) Make note that we are currently sitting at the Apr-May support areas. We need to “tip off” from this point for confirmation if one is looking for that.

AIRM Doji String in Air Methods Corp. ($AIRM)

For more information on doji strings and additional doji strategies, please refer to my PDF document below:

Doji Strategies

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